"Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault.". a smaller group of scientists drilled two boreholes to about 150m into the fault, also near Whataroa, in early 2011. WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO REGISTER, LET'S BUILD A GREAT COMMUNITY TOGETHER While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. Townend said the approach meant they could efficiently and accurately simulate millions of different earthquakes. UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. AND BE SURE TO JOIN OUR FORUM TOO! New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. – Wikipedia. Bradley said emergency resources would be stretched if a major earthquake struck, and people could expect to “feel far more alone”. The 600-kilometre fault has ruptured five times in the past 1100 years. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, so we're already a little overdue for one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand's modern history. The central and southern parts of the Alpine Fault run for about 400 kilometres up the spine of the South Island, and are about 40 times longer than the fault responsible for the fatal February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! A simulation shows the widespread damage that could occur if the South Island’s Alpine Fault ruptures. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. The new study is being supported with a $960,000 grant from the Marsden Fund. The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. As part of a lead-up to this year’s project. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. Open, casual and free forum where you can: post and share news events, discuss, debate, learn, or share your knowledge with others or just observe quietly...you're in control! By analysing sediment deposited at two sites in Fiordland – John O’Groats and Hokuri Creek – during previous earthquakes, scientists have established that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times over the last 8000 years. “If you’re living on land that doesn’t liquefy, then an Alpine Fault earthquake is unlikely to cause damage to your home in Christchurch,” he said. The project has now also completed its draft South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) framework, which puts into place procedures for when the enormous fault ruptures. The next major rupture of the South Island's Alpine Fault will prove one of the largest - if not the biggest - that earthquakes Kiwis have ever experienced. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of 200km in the space of about two minutes," said Holden. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. "But we haven't yet witnessed a rupture of this fault ourselves, so our understanding of what ground motions it will produce is based on hypotheses about how much of the fault ruptures, how fast, and to what depth... and the elastic properties of the Earth," he said. In earthquake terms, t Here's what experts say could happen when it hits the West Coast. Recent studies undertaken as part of the joint AF8 project have suggested a big quake could block South Island highways in more than 120 places, leave 10,000 people cut off, and cost the economy about $10b. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. The San Andreas fault is overdue for a major earthquake also known as "The Big One." "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] From there, the Alpine Fault runs along the western edge of the Southern Alps, before splitting into a set of smaller dextral strike-slip faults north of Arthur’s Pass, known as the Marlborough Fault System. The length of the rupture will be … UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. ... Just as the Kaikōura earthquake in 2016 had a significant impact on Wellington, we expect that when the Alpine Fault ruptures in a large magnitude earthquake it will be widely felt across the lower North Island. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, ... but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." SIGNING UP IS FAST, EASY AND FREE (TAKES LESS THAN A MINUTE AND IT'S A FREE FORUM). GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. Towns and cities throughout the South Island will feel its tremendous power, with those on the West Coast taking most of its brunt. University of Canterbury earthquake engineering Professor Brendon Bradley has used 3D modelling on New Zealand’s largest supercomputers to predict what a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault could feel like. He stressed the importance of being prepared, as main roading routes between Canterbury and the West Coast could be cut off. "It looks pretty random but embedded in the incoherence are useful signals that tell us how seismic waves propagate between different parts of the Alpine Fault and, say, locations in Christchurch or Nelson or wherever you like.". The Alpine Fault, which runs about ... 3D picture of the ground shaking effects we could expect from future large earthquakes on the fault. “Now that we have that understanding, we can prepare for it better, and hopefully we can lessen the impact it has on us as a society.”. He wants to raise awareness, not alarm, so people can be fully prepared. Newshub staff. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if … The Alpine Fault project will be one of the first attempts to probe the inside of a major fault before it ruptures. BE NOTIFIED BY EMAIL WHEN A NEW ARTICLE IS POSTED - ENTER YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS IN THE BOX BELOW AND HIT SUBSCRIBE! It would be more of a rolling motion for people in Christchurch, because of their distance away from the fault, he said. "This means that we can investigate a far more comprehensive range of scenarios that take into account the latest information we have about the fault's current state, and obtain realistic probabilistic estimates of the shaking that will occur in inevitable future large Alpine Fault earthquakes.". Because of the way earthquake magnitude is measured this means that a magnitude 8 earthquake releases about 30 times more energy than a magnitude 7. "This enables us to compute realistic ground-shaking in population centres and at other vulnerable locations in response to many more earthquake rupture scenarios than can be practicably studied using conventional approaches," Townend said. "What we're interested in is, how do variations in the likely characteristics of the earthquake affect ground shaking at different locations in the country?". This study builds upon previous investigations in order to develop a better chronology of large earthquakes generated by ruptures on the Alpine Fault. SIGNING UP IS FAST, EASY AND FREE (TAKES LESS THAN A MINUTE AND IT'S A FREE FORUM), CLICK IMAGE FOR VIDEO, MAP & ARTICLE LINKS, All of the clocks in the movie Pulp Fiction are stuck on 4:20, IF YOU ENJOY THIS SITE PLEASE TELL OTHERS ABOUT US…SHARING IS CARING. Devastated friends try to piece together chopper tragedy that killed couple, Desert Rd murder case: 'Naive' only child helped dispose of man's body, Multiple people trapped after car and truck crash, Seven fire trucks battled house fire in Pakipaki, near Hastings, Watchdog warns Noel Leeming over fast delivery promises. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. Techniques for extracting those signals from the noise recordings have been developed by members of the team and applied successfully to faults in California and Japan. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, specifically a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island. FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER , OR SUBSCRIBE TO OUR BLOG SO YOU NEVER MISS NEWLY POSTED ARTICLES OR IMPORTANT ALERTS! – Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. – Wind and waterproof clothing, sun hats, and strong outdoor shoes. Simulation shows widespread damage if Alpine Fault ruptures. Photo / Getty Images. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. The extent of damage would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the land and how vulnerable it was to liquefaction. The Alpine Fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand - especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. When an earthquake happens the ground moves on one side of the fault relative to the other. He hoped public pressure on the Government would result in action. The fault runs diagonally through Franz Josef Township and geologists have recommended a “fault avoidance zone” 100 meters either side to protect buildings. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing … #newzealand In Christchurch, the shaking from an Alpine Fault rupture might not feel as sharp as the February 2011 earthquake, Bradley said, but it would last a lot longer – about two or three minutes. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. ; '' weak buildings will fall down and many more will be one of the Big! – Wind and waterproof clothing, sun hats, and other faultlines may rupture what will happen if the alpine fault ruptures the 50. Next 50 years movement of up to eight metres it would be to the Haast-Hollyford. 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